Market Outlook 2024: Extending the investment horizon

Our central macroeconomic scenario for 2024 is for economic growth to remain in positive territory (but more limited, yet avoiding a global recession), inflation to ease (but remain high), and interest rates to start falling (gradually). We believe that central banks worldwide (with exceptions such as Japan and China) have raised interest rates to very restrictive levels that should be sufficient to moderate inflationary pressures. This change in the monetary policy stance is possible thanks to the confirmation that inflationary pressures are easing.

For the coming year investors should consider strategies beyond the short term to complement the safe haven currently offered by money markets following recent increases in official interest rates. Moreover, we believe it is an excellent time to build diversified portfolios, given the high yields available in both rate-sensitive assets (government bonds) and cyclically sensitive assets (corporate bonds and equities).

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